Acute Crisis Fuelling Chronic Insecurity: Migration Dynamics in the Context of the US–Israel v. Iran Conflict (2023–2026)

Abstract

The study examines how long-standing structural human insecurity in Iran is likely to evolve into a large-scale migration crisis following the sanctions and recent U.S. military intervention in 2026. Rather than interpreting migration solely as an immediate reaction to war, the study conceptualizes it as a rational risk-management process in which accumulated structural deficits—democratic, demographic, and developmental (3D)—interact with individual migration capacities (4C: financial, social, human, and physical capitals). The military intervention did not create migration from scratch; rather, it acted as a catalyst that intensified pre-existing insecurity and pushed it toward a life-threatening threshold, thereby activating latent displacement dynamics. At the regional level, established Iranian diaspora networks in neighbouring countries, particularly Türkiye, generate a “magnet effect” that lowers migration costs and facilitates cross-border mobility. In contrast, individuals with limited physical capacity often experience “forced immobility,” becoming trapped within the country despite high migration motivations. At the global level, highly skilled individuals tend to transform the crisis into an opportunity for status restoration by pursuing migration to Western destinations. Overall, we argue that Iran-driven displacement is not a purely spontaneous humanitarian response but a structured process shaped by the interaction of structural vulnerabilities and individual capacities. As such, it constitutes a broader stress test for regional governance systems and the global migration regime.