Predicting return intentions in Madrid


  • Raquel Caro Comillas Pontifical University
  • Mercedes Fernández Comillas Pontifical University
  • Consuelo Valbuena Francisco de Vitoria University



Return migration, return intentions, multinomial logit, social ties, economic variables


Although Spain has only recently turned out to be an immigrant-receiving country, because of the economic downturn, Spanish authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about return migration. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the underlying variables of return intention of migrants in the Autonomous Community of Madrid in order to extract policy implications in the return arena. The microdata source is the Regional Immigration Survey 2011–2012. Our main finding is that having a job in Spain is the most important constraint to returning. In any case, return intentions vary with age groups, so policy design should be different according to this variable.

Author Biographies

Raquel Caro, Comillas Pontifical University


University Institute for Studies on Migrations

Mercedes Fernández, Comillas Pontifical University


University Institute for Studies on Migrations

Consuelo Valbuena, Francisco de Vitoria University


Business and administration



How to Cite

Caro, R., Fernández, M., & Valbuena, C. (2016). Predicting return intentions in Madrid. Migration Letters, 13(1), 116-130.

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